ICPAC:The Greater Horn of Africa is bracing for a 5th consecutive failed rainy season( Press Release) – Somali National News Agency
Mombasa, Kenya: IGAD’S Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) today announced that the October to December (OND) 2022 forecast shows strong chances of drier than average conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. The drought-affected regions of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia will receive little water until the end.
These conditions could extend to parts of Eritrea, most of Uganda, Tanzania, and some of Somalia. However, Djibouti and the eastern Afar region in Ethiopia could see above-average precipitations. Temperatures should remain warmer than average across most of the region.Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director, reiterated the importance of the October to December season in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa where it contributes up to 70% of the annual total rainfall, particularly in eastern Kenya. He added: “it pains me to be the bearer of bad news, when millions of people in the region have already suffered the longest drought in 40 years. Our models indicate with high confidence that we are approaching the fifth consecutive failed rainfall season in the Horn of Africa. The situation is particularly dire in the worst hit regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia where we are on the brink of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe”.
Dr Workneh Gebeyehu (Executive Secretary of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development) echoed the severity of the situation. He stated that “a month ago, with our partners FAO and WFP, we told the world that 50 million people are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity this year across seven IGAD countries**.
Today, considering this grim climate forecast, conflicts in the region and in Ukraine, and macro economic challenges, I solemnly renew our call to national governments, donors,humanitarian, and development actors to adopt a no-regret strategy and help us weather the worse of this crisis.ICPAC also estimates that the start of the rainy season is likely to be delayed across much of the eastern parts of the region including southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, much of Burundi, and Tanzania. However, northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, and parts of eastern South Sudan are expected to experience a normal or early onset.
ICPAC has been designated a Regional Climate Centre by World Meteorological Organization. Its seasonal forecast is based a combination of several global climate model predictions tailored for East Africa. In this instance, seven out of the eight models used by ICPAC’s scientists indicate a drier OND 2022 season, thus increasing the reliability of the forecast.
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*IPC Phase 3 or above. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, (IPC), is a group of
<span;>Standard tools that are used to classify the severity and impact of food insecurity.
<span;>Accepted five-phase system: Minimal (IPC Stage 1), Stressed and Crisis (IPC Chapter 2)
<span;>Phase 3), Emergency (IPC PH 4) and Catastrophe/Famine/IPC Phase 5.
**Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda.
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Source: sonna
